Poochie’s Weather

Weather Channel had up snow for all day Friday. I got really excited, as you probably are, but don’t get excited… yet.

Stuff like this happens too much. By tomorrow i’m guessing it will be changed to either light snow, light wintry mix, or snow/rain mix. But we will find out Wednesday and Thursday how this thing will pan out.

If it turns out to be all snow, it will most likely be a minor accumulation. Maybe 4 inches at most.

Daily update tomorrow. Oh yeah, poochie of the week will be announced Monday.

Just saw a live coverage from Westminster, and the trees had a nice glaze of ice on them, and the reporter even said it was starting to freeze on the untreated surfaces.

Also, there is a glaze of ice on the trees outside my house. Thats great.

I’m def thinking two hour delay. Like 60% sure.

I gotta admit. This one is a toughy. Here are some temperatures to look at.

Piney Ridge Elementary- 31.5 degrees

Eldersburg Elementary- 32.3 degrees

Winters Mill HS(westminster)- 29.4 degrees

West MS(westminster)- 29.7 degrees

Manchester- 31.5 degrees

Although, Piney Ridge shows that below freezing temperature exist, stuff is not frozen solid outside. Sure the sleet help freeze that water on my porch, but thats it. Its not frozen solid. Thats indicates its right above freezing.

In about a couple of minutes there is a batch of precip coming into our area. I expect it to be sleet, because of the yellow/orange color on the radar. This will be sleet mixed with rain/freezing rain.

Up in northern Carroll County, I expect that they actually are getting freezing rain, because it actually is below freezing up there.

<>I’ve been looking at the wind directions, and they have been going back and forth between NNW and ESE. This indicates the southerly wind trying to take over, which will raise the temperatures. If that raise becomes before 4am, which they say it is, then its gonna be rough for stuff to be frozen out there, when they check the roads. Right now the roads are absolutely fine out here. Therefore it is not below freezing.

<>We really need a lot of sleet throughout the night. Sleet is good (for delays) because its already in the ice form, and its harder to melt than snow. Hope for sleet and hope for cold temps up north. Thats all we can count on.

I expect to get some sleet and rain, before the changeover to all rain late tonight.

<>PREDICTION:

No school: 1%

2-hr delay: 49.5%

Full day of school: 49.5%

Yeah sorry those predictions are not straight forward at all. If anything changes drastically to change my thought, I will update. Most likely something will happen to change my thought.

Check out how northerly those winds are. Coming straight from Canada. Hope that wind can hold till tomorrow morning. I doubt it will. Check out my earlier post for the forecast.

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Oh yeah and temps have dropped pretty good. I talked to my oboe teacher in Hampstead, Carroll County and she said her car was covered with ice, and it just started snowing. Weather channel just lowered the low temp from 33 to 30. Thats good news. Piney Ridge has a temp of 31.8. Now I dont know why the water on my porch table is still water!

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Alright….

<>Temps aren’t looking bad at all. Two readings in Wesminister indicate 30.5 degrees farenheit. That means those roads are just sheet of ice. Any water up there is frozen or freezing.

That cold air is headed our way. We have a North Northeast wind of 10mph. This means the air flowing in is cold and coming from the north.

Piney Ridge Elementary school indicates a temperature of 32.1 degrees farenheit. Five minutes earlier I checked it, it was 32.4 degrees. This is good stuff.

In spite of this, the weather channel forecast is dismal. They have just rain tonight, not including freezing rain or any wintry mix. I hope that they underestimated the temperature.

The precipitation will end soon, then a batch of precip that is located in West Virginia will role on in and give us, what I hope, is some freezing rain.

The good news is that there is already water on the ground, so if the temp were to get below freezing, then the roads would just be a mess. The problem is, is that the North wind is going to end around 4am, and a Southerly wind will develop, causing a rise in temperatures. I hope there is enough ice on the ground so that the raise in temps doesn’t have much effect on the school system’s decision. Nevertheless, if the temperatures don’t get below freezing, there is no hope whatsoever. Its possible that the temps will just hoover above freezing, and nothing happens at all.

I would say right now that I think we’ll have a delay, with a minimal chance of no school. I will make my official prediction around 8:30ish, maybe a little later. Check for updates!!!

As I thought, the Winter Storm Watch was dropped, and changed to a Winter Weather Advisory.

They don’t even think the precip is gonna be there, for the freezing/sleet to accumulate. I think the precip will be there, but the temperatures will not.

The lowered the low’s from 32 to 33 for around here. Its going to get colder all day today, and then colder into tonight, then get warmer from 4am-the rest of the morning. So anything that falls tonight, will most likely not be enough to cause school closure. I’m thinking a delay. Update later today.

We are under a winter storm watch for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There is a front moving through tomorrow night, bring rain in front of it and colder air behind it. The watch stated that the temps will go below freezing Tuesday afternoon allowing atleast a quarter of an inch of ice to fall. If this watch holds true, I do not think we would have school Wednesday. However, this is a day in advance. Anything can change. Last year, a winter storm watch was issued, then cancelled because the temps never got below freezing. This is very possible. We will see. These days the cold air doesn’t seem to favor us much.

<><> Weather channel predicts 1-2 inches of snow during the day, then 1-2 inches of snow Tuesday afternoon with sleet and freezing rain mixing in. I don’t know about that 2-4 inches expected. What I think, is that if we get out of school Wednesday, it will be because of northern Carroll County. I will update either later today, or tomorrow midday. Check for updates!!!

Well, things are looking about the same as the were before. The temperature is 37 degrees currently. It has only gone down 2 degrees in the past 4 hours. So…. everything is looking just exactly the same. It doesn’t look like the temperature will go below freezing tonight, which will make it tough for snow to stick on roads, thats provided it will even snow hard enough to get any accumulation. It appears we are looking at a dusting-inch of snow.  Because we are relying on a  tail end of a low to give us a burst of snow, the possibility for school closing/delay is minimal. Look for those temps tonight, and see how low they get.

Prediction:

No school- 0%

<>Two Hour delay- 30%

<>Full day of school-70%

<>Yeah, not so good. C’mon cold air!!! Thats all we need right now.

Theres some good news and bad news right now. The good news-there is a northeast wind already developing. This means it won’t get any warmer, just colder, but how cold is the problem. The National Ocean and Atmospheric Association(NOAA) has only a low of 34 for tonight. Thats just too bloody warm!! Oh yeah thats the bad news. No one is forecasting it to get freezing or below tomorrow morning.

Some other really great news, is the timing of this snow. This snow will be a change over from rain to snow and it will be like a burst of snow. Meaning it should be heaving for a short period of time. This is because the low is moving out, allowing the cold air to filter in slowly. The timing of this burst of snow, is perfect. From 5am to 10am is when it is expected. Right in the morning rush hour. If it lasts long enough until lets say till 9:00ish, no school is possible. If it snows hard enough, theres always the chance of a little slush accumulating on the roads. Furthermore, snowing before the sun comes up, really increases the chances of the snow sticking on the road. Even though its cloudy, the sun rays radiate off the road, increasing their temperature.

<> What I am saying is that it needs to snow before the sun comes up and continue to snow, until 9ish, if we want to have a chance of being off school. Right now my prediction would be 20% Two-hour delay 5%No school 75%School all day. By the way, there is no possibility of getting off early. I will make my final prediction at 8:00. I really wanna see if these temps drop sooner than expected or not. Check back at 8:00 to see predictons.

<> P.S. We are under a Winter Weather Advisory and Flood Watch. Expect the rain to be hella-heavy tonight. The Winter Weather Advisory just said to watch out for a burst of snow during the morning rush hour.

Its not looking too good. No cold air tonight. So tonight any precip will be plain ol’ rain. Tomorrow night is where there is the possibility of snow.<>

The timing is perfect tomorrow. It begins tomorrow night and ends in the morning around 9. PERRFECT. But the temps are going to be the determining factor for school delay. Right now noaa.gov has a low of 33 degrees. Thats not good enough. Sure it might snow, but the snow will not stick. Weather.com has a low of 37 degrees. So right now I would say we’ll have school friday, with no delay. It all depends on those temps. The precip is gonna be there, and it might even snow for sure, but if its not below freezing, roads will be fine. We will just have to wait and see if the temps change at all tomorrow. I’ll update and give the final prediction for Friday.