Saturday will be a great day to get outside and enjoy the weather. Temperatures will be just in the upper 80s, with some places hitting 90 across Maryland.

Sunday temperatures will again be in the upper 80s, however scattered thunderstorms will conflict with your dog walking.

Rest of the Week:

The chance of showers/thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday, with temperatures in the upper 70s for the whole week.

With our calm weather lets take a look at some severe weather in the Midwest.

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8:10 PM SUNDAY 4.25.10

Current base reflectively radar.  A line of severe thunderstorms is bisecting Central Maryland. The thunderstorms are currently training, which means they are following each other’s path. This has set up the criteria for flash flood warnings across Frederick and Carroll counties. Severe thunderstorm warnings are also in place in Frederick, Montgomery, Howard, Carroll, and Baltimore and Harford Counties, and Baltimore City until 8:45 PM. These warnings are mainly for large hail up to the size of ping pong balls, although frequent cloud to ground lightning will also be a threat. Hail as large as nickels have already been reported in Carroll County. These storms will persist throughout the night as the storms will continue to develop along the warm front.  Check for updates throughout the night monitoring this volatile situation.

“Expect a mix of rain and snow this evening, changing over to mainly snow after 8pm. A slushy accumulation of 1-2 is possible on grassy surfaces before it all ends. No worries spring athletes, a warm up is in our forecast for the weekend.  

Snow and rain will be intermittent tonight, with intensity increasing as the evening progresses. This first batch of precipitation  is relatively light but will build as the center of low pressure moves closer and more moisture becomes accessible. Between a quarter and half inch of precipitation is expected when all is said and done. Trying to translate that into snowfall accumulation is tricky with this storm. Subtract a tenth of inch for snowfall that won’t stick and another tenth of inch that may be rain, and you end up with with .05″-.3″ of precipitation that falls in the form of snow and sticks. With ratios around 1:10 that’s anywhere from a 1/2 inch to 3 inches of snow. 

Another tricky aspect of this storm is trying to locate the “sweet spot” for snow. Temperatures will be colder in northwestern parts of Maryland, but precipitation will be higher in southeastern Maryland. This indicates somewhere in between like places just north of I-95 could that “sweet spot”. Most all of the accumulation will occur on grassy surfaces or preexisting snow. However, early tomorrow morning be wary of some possible slushy spots on the roads.”

For our area, I am thinking an inch and a half of snow will accumulate on grass. I do not think a delay is out of the possibilities, but road surface temperatures will most definitely have to go down throughout the night. One good sign is that temperatures are currently crashing and are in the lower 30’s.

So we had a sneaky 2-hr delay up here in Carroll County. The 5am rule came into effect. It was snowing at 5am, boom insta-delay.

I was going through the Sterling National Weather Service (who forecasts our weather) and found the snowfall accumulations for our region for all of the snowstorms.

December 5th First SnowDecember 8-9th Event

December Blizzard

January 7-8th Event

January 30th “Surprise Snow”

February 2nd Event

Feb Ultra Kahuna

Ultra Kahuna Round Two

That’s all of them except for the light snows we had this week.

So adding Friday’s snowfall, that’s nine accumulating snowfalls, six significant (4″+) snowfalls, and three 18″+ snow falls. WOW.

Lets see how this compares to average.

On an “average” year Baltimore receives…

An inch or more -5 times.

Two inches or more - 3.3 times.

Four inches or more - 1.4 times.

Six inches or more - .6 times.

Ten inches or more - .2 times.

Pretty amazing comparing to this year’s actual.

Some amazing total snowfall numbers I gathered using the data above…

Sykesville: 84.2″

Westminster: 85.7″

Frederick: 86.9″

Columbia: 83.3″

BWI: 79.9″

As for the weather this week… It should be relatively calm, besides Tuesday/Wednesday. A storm system looks to affect the east coast, and it looks like we could get a light snow event, or nothing at all. Keep your eyes peeled.

I am sure most people agree with me as not much snow will fall tonight.

One thing I must point out…

The only chance we have at a delay, is if it is snowing moderately right at 5am, when the Carroll County guys are driving around checking out the conditions.

Winds tonight will be howling. 30-35mph sustained, 50-60mph gusts. High Wind Warning in effect because of this.

Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until tomorrow morning calling for 1-2 inches of fluffy white snow. I think we will see an inch or less. Hopefully we get more….

Only chance we have at closing is if power outages and downed trees are so widespread that it causes transportation difficulties and power outages at schools. I know Century’s power is underground, but if widespread power outages occur it may alter the school’s decision. 

 Here are the current outages.

If anything dramitcally changes, I will certainly let you know. For now check out me on Foot Forecast live video stream which will update around 11pm.

I will see you all in school tomorrow as about a half an inch of snow will be dropped tonight.

Then another 2-4″ Thursday evening, maybe a delay Friday. Stay tuned

Here is the low down of what I think currently.

First batch of precip arrives tonight, bringing 1-3 inches across the area. Then coastal low pressure “bombs out” just off of coast and then brings us another 2-4″ tomorrow late evening. Very strong winds with this storm, so expect power outages.

Winter Weather Advisory in effect tonight and then Winter Storm Watch still in effect tomorrow evening.

Take a look at what I wrote on Foot’s Forecast:

“ Tonight we will see the first batch of precip move through as a light mixed bag of rain/snow. Any rain should turn over to snow by 1am tomorrow morning. Snow may stop for a time Thursday morning, but then come back later in the day Thursday. The most intense parts of this storm should occur Thursday evening/night. This is when coastal low pressure will really “bomb out” producing strong winds and periods of moderate/heavy snow. The problem with this storm is that there will be a sharp cut off with the amount of precipitation. North and East will see more snow than the South and West regions of Maryland.

My current thinking for exact snowfall amounts are; western part of Carroll/Howard and westward (Frederick, Montgomery) will see 2-4″, eastern Carroll/Howard to central Baltimore/Northern Anne Arundel will see 3-6″, and then locations east of central Baltimore (Harford/Cecil) will see 4-8″ with higher accumulations possible in extreme north and east locations.” 

As for school tomorrow and Friday… Tomorrow with 1-3″ you’d think we would get a delay.. well that’s possible. But then they will have to decide whether or not they think snow will arrive soon enough to cause driving problems during with school transportation,  in order to decide for early dismissal. Then for Friday, if we get another 3″ a delay may be in stock.

Update at 9pm.

Winter Storm Watch currently in effect calling for the potential of 5 inches or more for Frederick, Howard, Carroll, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Cecil and St. Mary’s counties.

This storm will be extremely powerful bringing powerful winds and heavy snow. It also has huge bust potential for our area. Stay tuned for updates later today.

A little rain is in stock for tomorrow. Nothing huge, maybe a quarter to half an inch of precip. May cause some minor flooding, as storm drains aren’t accessible.

As for snow… Well things may actually be normal this week. That’s a first. But surely, there will be another snow storm before winter ends.

People in the north-northeast may get pounded with a couple snow storms. It’s there chance to get in on a little action, which they can handle.

For updates everyday, check out the Foot’s Forecast video feed!

Have a great week everyone!

Accumulating snow is not in the immediate future, however there are some storms on the horizon for next week.