Poochie’s Weather

What will happen tonight? Well almost everything will happen tonight. You will see snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain (freezing rain doesn’t look any different than rain until it freezes on contact).

Snow and sleet will start sometime around 5-6 this afternoon. This will then change to rain/freezing rain after 11pm. The current thought is that it will just be falling as plain rain after 3am tomorrow morning. What we need to happen is for a good half inch of sleet/snow to fall this evening, then the temperature to stay at 32 until sunrise. In this case we would get a good amount of ice and schools would most likely be closed. However, with the current forecast being all rain by 3am, schools will probably not be closed. A two hour delay is definitely in the realm if possibilities. To get some time out of school we are going to need some help from northern Carroll County, where the temperatures should stay colder than they are down here. 

Winter Storm Watch is still in effect oddly enough. I would have expected it to turn into a warning or advisory by now. My thought is that we will be under a Winter Weather Advisory tonight, a half inch of sleet/snow will fall, and less than a tenth of an inch of ice will fall. It should be all rain by 2am. This would have been a much different circumstance if it hadn’t gone up to 40 degrees today. Its going to take a while for that temperature to fall. Come back tonight when I will deal out my final prediction on school. 

P.S. My Towson fan out there… Expect a little sleet and snow tonight, then changing to all rain by midnight.

A Winter Storm Watch has been put into effect for our area for Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.

The Watch is calling for a period of freezing rain Tuesday night which may cause some icing. The thought is that the cold air currently at the surface will stay put while the warm air comes over top. This warm will eventually override the cold air and it will just be plain ol’ rain. The only question is how long the cold air stays put. My thought is that we get a little snow/sleet late Tuesday evening, then an hour or so of freezing rain. I also think it will be all rain by 4 or 5 am not really affecting travel conditions (school). To be honest the Winter Storm Watch isn’t really for our area, it is mainly for the most north and western parts of Carroll County.

I will update tomorrow with new information. Depending on what happens I may have to issue a prediction for school on Wednesday. Stay tuned.

WOW!!!!

We’re actually gonna get snow this week. How amazing is that. Okay let break things down.

First of all, Winter Storm Watch is in effect from 6pm tomorrow till Wednesday afternoon. This means that will be the time period the Winter Storm Warning will be in effect till.

Tonight and tomorrow morning will contain the beginning of this monstrous storm. This is when the snow will start. Heavier snow will develop around 6ish tomorrow morning. 1-3 inches. PERFECT!!!!

<>Then the snow will end by noon. This is when the coastal storm develops. Tuesday night it looks like we will get a wintry mix. The wintry mix is due to warm air overloft. Wedesday the snow,sleet, and freezing rain will all end by Wednesday afternoon. (Some say we could get a little plain ol’ rain)

<>Check it yo.

<>Right now I am think no school Tuesday and no school Wednesday. Im pretty confident about that too.

<> I WILL update constantly today as things change.

Its pretty cold right now. Every temp reading I have seen has been below freezing. Most rain that is falling now is freezing. Most of the precip that has fallen today as been pretty light. Thats about to change.

Heavy precip is on its way and we be here soon, and here to stay. This might make stuff more interesting. Pockets of sleet may be contained in the heaviest bands of the storm. Sleet always makes the roads ice up.

Like I said the temps are below freezing, but it takes a lot for the water to freeze on the roads. It needs to be somewhere in the mid 20’s to have a shot at that. The coldest reading that I saw was for 27 degrees, in Westminster.

The problem is tonight it is going to warm up in the early Wednesday morning. The rain and wamer temps will melt everything, and decrease our chance of not having school. This happened a couple weeks before break and it ended we got nothing, and all ice was melted before we got to school. Im not too optimistic about tomorrow.

Prediction at 9.

Here we go here we go.

I might rush this as I have an AP project that is due tomorrow, like many other juniors do. I suggest completing the homework.

<>The norther tier of the storm has entered southern Virginia. The northern part of this storm seems to be breaking up a bit. This is due to the interaction it has with the Appalachian Mountains.

<>If some of those batches of precipation can get to our area by 6ish, we would be golden. These batches of precip would bring a mix bag of sleet and snow. Any accumulation would be minimal. But I think if this were to happen it would maybe give the Carroll County Public School people a little freak out and they’d determine the storm is already here, so it makes no sense for us to go. This is possible.

<>Good news is the temperatures tonight and tomorrow will not be a worry. It will stay below freezing starting late tonight and into tomorrow night. Wednesday morning is where the temps start to warm up a bit.

<>Expect freezing rain and sleet tomorrow. It will likely start mid-morning, so 9ish. Thats no good. Once again, if those batches of precip stay strong and don’t dissapate, they’ll be here around 6ish.

<>Predictions

<>2hr delay- 0% chance

<>No School- 40% chance

<>School Full Day- 10% chance

<>Early Dismissal-  50% chance

This is a close call. Hope im right.

I gotta admit. This one is a toughy. Here are some temperatures to look at.

Piney Ridge Elementary- 31.5 degrees

Eldersburg Elementary- 32.3 degrees

Winters Mill HS(westminster)- 29.4 degrees

West MS(westminster)- 29.7 degrees

Manchester- 31.5 degrees

Although, Piney Ridge shows that below freezing temperature exist, stuff is not frozen solid outside. Sure the sleet help freeze that water on my porch, but thats it. Its not frozen solid. Thats indicates its right above freezing.

In about a couple of minutes there is a batch of precip coming into our area. I expect it to be sleet, because of the yellow/orange color on the radar. This will be sleet mixed with rain/freezing rain.

Up in northern Carroll County, I expect that they actually are getting freezing rain, because it actually is below freezing up there.

<>I’ve been looking at the wind directions, and they have been going back and forth between NNW and ESE. This indicates the southerly wind trying to take over, which will raise the temperatures. If that raise becomes before 4am, which they say it is, then its gonna be rough for stuff to be frozen out there, when they check the roads. Right now the roads are absolutely fine out here. Therefore it is not below freezing.

<>We really need a lot of sleet throughout the night. Sleet is good (for delays) because its already in the ice form, and its harder to melt than snow. Hope for sleet and hope for cold temps up north. Thats all we can count on.

I expect to get some sleet and rain, before the changeover to all rain late tonight.

<>PREDICTION:

No school: 1%

2-hr delay: 49.5%

Full day of school: 49.5%

Yeah sorry those predictions are not straight forward at all. If anything changes drastically to change my thought, I will update. Most likely something will happen to change my thought.

Check out how northerly those winds are. Coming straight from Canada. Hope that wind can hold till tomorrow morning. I doubt it will. Check out my earlier post for the forecast.

<>

Oh yeah and temps have dropped pretty good. I talked to my oboe teacher in Hampstead, Carroll County and she said her car was covered with ice, and it just started snowing. Weather channel just lowered the low temp from 33 to 30. Thats good news. Piney Ridge has a temp of 31.8. Now I dont know why the water on my porch table is still water!

<>

We are under a winter storm watch for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There is a front moving through tomorrow night, bring rain in front of it and colder air behind it. The watch stated that the temps will go below freezing Tuesday afternoon allowing atleast a quarter of an inch of ice to fall. If this watch holds true, I do not think we would have school Wednesday. However, this is a day in advance. Anything can change. Last year, a winter storm watch was issued, then cancelled because the temps never got below freezing. This is very possible. We will see. These days the cold air doesn’t seem to favor us much.

<><> Weather channel predicts 1-2 inches of snow during the day, then 1-2 inches of snow Tuesday afternoon with sleet and freezing rain mixing in. I don’t know about that 2-4 inches expected. What I think, is that if we get out of school Wednesday, it will be because of northern Carroll County. I will update either later today, or tomorrow midday. Check for updates!!!

A warming trend is currently over us, which will raise that temps into the upper 50’s Wednesday. This storm is gonna be really tricky.  The warm in front of this storm really is screwing us up. The amount of frozen precip will be determined by how fast the cold air comes, and how cold the air is. Right now noaa.gov has a chance of freezing rain Wednesday night, then Thursday a high of 34. If that high would be 2 degrees lower all day, then we have a shot for a nice storm. A meteorologist from accuweather.com, who I watch and read his blog, has really hyped this.  Giving us 3-6 inches from Thursday to Friday morn. If this were to be true, no school Friday. But this guy always hypes storms. The models are going back and forth between the cold air entering and not entering.<> Watch the temps for Wednesday night, Thurs and Friday, to see if the models budged at all. Things will change tomorrow in the models so I will update.

Right now I am thinking that Thursday we will have school, because the temps will get warm to melt and frozen precip that fell Wednesday night. Friday I’m thinking a possibility of a two hour delay. This all depends on the temperatures, and how fast that cold air can penetrate our area. I will update tomorrow with the new forecasts.

What a crappy storm. Winter Storm Warning has been lifted and turned into a Winter Weather Advisory. Low pressure never ever got organized enough and came into our region. And additionally, its just too warm. Everything is melting, and the rain is unable to freeze on contact. So yeah, we are lucky that the storm dropped about an inch of snow last night. Because this storm is a dud….

Dak

Btw: Please comment if you have an opinion about something i said or something. Me gusta comments