Poochie’s Weather

Get ready for a semi-decent weekend. How do you get ready for that? Plan all your fun outside activites for Saturday.

Saturday will be a great day to get outside and enjoy the weather. Temperatures will be just in the upper 80s, with some places hitting 90 across Maryland.

Sunday temperatures will again be in the upper 80s, however scattered thunderstorms will conflict with your dog walking.

Rest of the Week:

The chance of showers/thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday, with temperatures in the upper 70s for the whole week.

With our calm weather lets take a look at some severe weather in the Midwest.

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Here are my thoughts that I posted on Foot’s Forecast…

“Expect a mix of rain and snow this evening, changing over to mainly snow after 8pm. A slushy accumulation of 1-2 is possible on grassy surfaces before it all ends. No worries spring athletes, a warm up is in our forecast for the weekend.  

Snow and rain will be intermittent tonight, with intensity increasing as the evening progresses. This first batch of precipitation  is relatively light but will build as the center of low pressure moves closer and more moisture becomes accessible. Between a quarter and half inch of precipitation is expected when all is said and done. Trying to translate that into snowfall accumulation is tricky with this storm. Subtract a tenth of inch for snowfall that won’t stick and another tenth of inch that may be rain, and you end up with with .05″-.3″ of precipitation that falls in the form of snow and sticks. With ratios around 1:10 that’s anywhere from a 1/2 inch to 3 inches of snow. 

Another tricky aspect of this storm is trying to locate the “sweet spot” for snow. Temperatures will be colder in northwestern parts of Maryland, but precipitation will be higher in southeastern Maryland. This indicates somewhere in between like places just north of I-95 could that “sweet spot”. Most all of the accumulation will occur on grassy surfaces or preexisting snow. However, early tomorrow morning be wary of some possible slushy spots on the roads.”

For our area, I am thinking an inch and a half of snow will accumulate on grass. I do not think a delay is out of the possibilities, but road surface temperatures will most definitely have to go down throughout the night. One good sign is that temperatures are currently crashing and are in the lower 30’s.

Hello PoochieFans!

So we had a sneaky 2-hr delay up here in Carroll County. The 5am rule came into effect. It was snowing at 5am, boom insta-delay.

I was going through the Sterling National Weather Service (who forecasts our weather) and found the snowfall accumulations for our region for all of the snowstorms.

December 5th First SnowDecember 8-9th Event

December Blizzard

January 7-8th Event

January 30th “Surprise Snow”

February 2nd Event

Feb Ultra Kahuna

Ultra Kahuna Round Two

That’s all of them except for the light snows we had this week.

So adding Friday’s snowfall, that’s nine accumulating snowfalls, six significant (4″+) snowfalls, and three 18″+ snow falls. WOW.

Lets see how this compares to average.

On an “average” year Baltimore receives…

An inch or more -5 times.

Two inches or more - 3.3 times.

Four inches or more - 1.4 times.

Six inches or more - .6 times.

Ten inches or more - .2 times.

Pretty amazing comparing to this year’s actual.

Some amazing total snowfall numbers I gathered using the data above…

Sykesville: 84.2″

Westminster: 85.7″

Frederick: 86.9″

Columbia: 83.3″

BWI: 79.9″

As for the weather this week… It should be relatively calm, besides Tuesday/Wednesday. A storm system looks to affect the east coast, and it looks like we could get a light snow event, or nothing at all. Keep your eyes peeled.

Hey all you diehard Poochie Fans.

Sorry for the delay on this next storm, I have been a tad busy.

Here is my general thought on this next storm:

• 1-2 inches south and east of I-95
• 2-3 inches bordering I-95
• 3-5 inches north and west of I-95

There may be some rain mixing in southern parts of Howard County as temperatures in the upper atmosphere may not be below freezing. Mixing would definitely cut down accumulations. Locations in the northern parts of Frederick and Carroll will most likely see the higher accumulations, possibly approaching 6 inches.

There is a possibility of some changes with this storm. I am working with the Foot’s Forecast team monitoring this situation closely as this storm looks to be pretty tricky.

So stay tuned for updates.

WOW.

Both NAM and GFS models agree on 15-21 inches in our area.12-18 inches looks like a good bet for the Central MD area, with accumulations increasing as you travel east.

Arrival time will be between 12pm-2pm tomorrow afternoon and the storm will departure Wednesday afternoon.This hurt this region bad. Some places will have over 50 inches of snow on the ground. I really have no clue what road crews are gonna do with all the snow. Hopefully all roads have been cleared by now, or else it may become impossible to clear them, after the next snow.

Winter Storm Watch still in effect calling for 10+ inches.

Oh and no school for the rest of the week.

Another 6-12 inches looks to be heading our way. This El Nino winter has a lot in store for us.

A Winter Storm Watch is already in effect for our region calling for 5+ inches of snow.

Right now 6-12″ looks like a good possibility. However one of the weather computer models (GFS) gives us 18-20 inches! Woah…not out of the realm of possibilities the way winter has been this year.Several models have had differing outcomes, so we will see which way the models trend.

Check for updates tomorrow.

A quick clipper system will be moving into the region late Thurs Night and Early Friday morning. Latest models indicate that the system may be able to hold on to some of its moisture over the App. Mts. or become replenished by moisture from the Gulf. A lot of times these systems lose there punch and only give us a trace to an inch of snow.

Right now I am thinking 1-3 by 10 am Friday morning. If we were to get 2+ inches, school Friday would be doubtful. I think 1 inch would get us a delay for sure. Check footsforecast for the latest in-depth analysis.

We may see some snow showers tonight and tomorrow, however expect no accumulation and at the most a dusting.Its gonna be very cold all week. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing all week.Thursday night and Friday we’re watching a storm that could develop in a pretty good storm. Even if it doesn’t, I have good news… it won’t be rain!Expect updates all week.

Models are showing a really nice snow storm for our area sometime around New Years Day. About 5 days out, thats pretty good. So I will keep my eyes peeled and continue to update.

<> Also another storm is out there sometime between January 4th - 6th. I am excited to see how this pans out.

What will happen tonight? Well almost everything will happen tonight. You will see snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain (freezing rain doesn’t look any different than rain until it freezes on contact).

Snow and sleet will start sometime around 5-6 this afternoon. This will then change to rain/freezing rain after 11pm. The current thought is that it will just be falling as plain rain after 3am tomorrow morning. What we need to happen is for a good half inch of sleet/snow to fall this evening, then the temperature to stay at 32 until sunrise. In this case we would get a good amount of ice and schools would most likely be closed. However, with the current forecast being all rain by 3am, schools will probably not be closed. A two hour delay is definitely in the realm if possibilities. To get some time out of school we are going to need some help from northern Carroll County, where the temperatures should stay colder than they are down here. 

Winter Storm Watch is still in effect oddly enough. I would have expected it to turn into a warning or advisory by now. My thought is that we will be under a Winter Weather Advisory tonight, a half inch of sleet/snow will fall, and less than a tenth of an inch of ice will fall. It should be all rain by 2am. This would have been a much different circumstance if it hadn’t gone up to 40 degrees today. Its going to take a while for that temperature to fall. Come back tonight when I will deal out my final prediction on school. 

P.S. My Towson fan out there… Expect a little sleet and snow tonight, then changing to all rain by midnight.